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Market Insights: Global Metallurgy and Manganese
Review (March 2026)
Review (March 2026)
Katowice, Poland – 27 March 2026
March 2026 signaled a definitive transition for global steel and ferroalloy markets as production volumes climbed to their highest levels in nearly three years. Following the seasonal disruptions of the Lunar New Year, the industry moved past early-year regulatory “implementation chaos” to find a new, albeit bifurcated, operational stability.
Global Production Rebound
Global crude steel production reached 161.2 million tons in March, marking a sharp 7.9% month-on-month increase. While this remains 4.3% lower than the same period last year, the sequential recovery suggests that global output likely bottomed out in early Q1.
• China: Production surged 8.7% month-on-month to 88.3 million tons as mills engaged in aggressive post-holiday restocking. However, persistent property sector weakness continues to act as a ceiling on year-on-year growth.
• India: Maintaining its trajectory as a high-growth alternative to Chinese supply, India saw an 11.2% year-on-year expansion. Indian exporters have successfully pivoted toward MENA and Southeast Asian markets, effectively reducing their reliance on Western destinations.
• United States: Performance remains robust, with weekly production up 4.6% year-on-year. Demand is being primarily driven by massive investments in AI data center infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and the automotive sector.
Ferroalloys and Manganese: Entrenched Cost-Push Inflation
The ferroalloy sector is currently defined by “cost-push” dynamics, where rising raw material prices are rapidly being passed through to finished alloys. Manganese ore prices have hit one-year highs, with Chinese port prices reaching $5.60–$6.00/dmtu. This rally is supported by structural supply constraints – notably infrastructure bottlenecks in Gabon -and sustained demand from Indian ferromanganese producers. India’s MOIL Limited responded with a modest 2% price increase across most grades in March, though specialty grades saw hikes as high as 10%. Elsewhere, chrome ore inventories remain critically low, cementing a firm price floor for ferrochrome.
European Policy and the Road to June
European markets are currently navigating a complex regulatory landscape. While CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) operations are beginning to stabilize, the industry is focused on the June 30 safeguard expiration.
The European Parliament has backed significant measures, including a potential ban on Russian and Belarusian steel imports and a drastic 47% reduction in tariff-free quotas. If implemented, these changes would fundamentally tighten European import access by mid-year.
April 2026 Outlook
The outlook for April is one of cautious optimism. Global steel demand is projected to grow by 1.3% for the full year, though the sustainability of China’s recovery and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain the primary downside risks. Market participants should watch for potential volatility as policy decisions regarding EU safeguards and US-China trade relations approach their final negotiation phases.
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Primeore Trading (Polska) Sp. z o.o. is a trading arm of Primeore Ltd. which is responsible for handling of all international trading and trading-related operations of the group. The company is involved into operations with manganese ore, ferroalloys, coke and coal products worldwide.
Media contacts
For further information please contact office.poland@primeore.eu
March 2026 signaled a definitive transition for global steel and ferroalloy markets as production volumes climbed to their highest levels in nearly three years. Following the seasonal disruptions of the Lunar New Year, the industry moved past early-year regulatory “implementation chaos” to find a new, albeit bifurcated, operational stability.
Global Production Rebound
Global crude steel production reached 161.2 million tons in March, marking a sharp 7.9% month-on-month increase. While this remains 4.3% lower than the same period last year, the sequential recovery suggests that global output likely bottomed out in early Q1.
• China: Production surged 8.7% month-on-month to 88.3 million tons as mills engaged in aggressive post-holiday restocking. However, persistent property sector weakness continues to act as a ceiling on year-on-year growth.
• India: Maintaining its trajectory as a high-growth alternative to Chinese supply, India saw an 11.2% year-on-year expansion. Indian exporters have successfully pivoted toward MENA and Southeast Asian markets, effectively reducing their reliance on Western destinations.
• United States: Performance remains robust, with weekly production up 4.6% year-on-year. Demand is being primarily driven by massive investments in AI data center infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and the automotive sector.
Ferroalloys and Manganese: Entrenched Cost-Push Inflation
The ferroalloy sector is currently defined by “cost-push” dynamics, where rising raw material prices are rapidly being passed through to finished alloys. Manganese ore prices have hit one-year highs, with Chinese port prices reaching $5.60–$6.00/dmtu. This rally is supported by structural supply constraints – notably infrastructure bottlenecks in Gabon -and sustained demand from Indian ferromanganese producers. India’s MOIL Limited responded with a modest 2% price increase across most grades in March, though specialty grades saw hikes as high as 10%. Elsewhere, chrome ore inventories remain critically low, cementing a firm price floor for ferrochrome.
European Policy and the Road to June
European markets are currently navigating a complex regulatory landscape. While CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) operations are beginning to stabilize, the industry is focused on the June 30 safeguard expiration.
The European Parliament has backed significant measures, including a potential ban on Russian and Belarusian steel imports and a drastic 47% reduction in tariff-free quotas. If implemented, these changes would fundamentally tighten European import access by mid-year.
April 2026 Outlook
The outlook for April is one of cautious optimism. Global steel demand is projected to grow by 1.3% for the full year, though the sustainability of China’s recovery and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain the primary downside risks. Market participants should watch for potential volatility as policy decisions regarding EU safeguards and US-China trade relations approach their final negotiation phases.
***
Primeore Trading (Polska) Sp. z o.o. is a trading arm of Primeore Ltd. which is responsible for handling of all international trading and trading-related operations of the group. The company is involved into operations with manganese ore, ferroalloys, coke and coal products worldwide.
Media contacts
For further information please contact office.poland@primeore.eu
