Katowice, Poland – 04 February 2026

Happy New Year? Not really. January 2026 started with a “reckoning” that many people saw coming but nobody was actually ready for. Global production dropped by 6.5%—this is the sharpest fall we have seen in a long time. It feels like the industry is waking up with a very bad hangover from 2025.

The Winter Freeze in China. China’s output didn’t just drop; it “plunged” nearly 14%. Part of this is the weather, and part is the government telling factories to stop smoking so the air is clean for the winter heating season. But mostly it’s just the economy. Their property sector is still a “ghost town” and isn’t eating any steel. They produced about 71 million tons, which is a lot, but for China, it’s a very low number. The divergence is getting wild: India is up 10.5% and the US is up 3.3%, while the rest of the world is shrinking.

The CBAM Reality Check. In Europe, the “January 1st” fear has become “January 1st” reality. The first shipments of the year are arriving, and the paperwork is a mess. Production in Europe fell nearly 3% this month. Between the high cost of electricity and the new carbon paperwork, European steel is becoming a “luxury product.” It’s getting harder and harder for local mills to compete with imports, even with all the new taxes. We are hearing stories of traders just canceling orders because they can’t figure out the tax math.

A Glimmer of Hope for Alloys. Despite the bad news in raw steel, some analysts are saying the “long game” for alloys like manganese and silicon is actually quite good. Why? Because of the “Green Transition.” Even if we make less total steel, the type of steel we need now—for wind turbines, high-tech machines, and electric cars—needs more high-quality alloys. They are predicting 6% growth in the alloy market over the next few years. So, if you are a miner or an alloy producer, don’t give up yet. The world might need less steel, but it needs “better” steel. Manganese prices in India are already up 3%, showing that someone out there is still buying.

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Primeore Trading (Polska) Sp. z o.o. is a trading arm of Primeore Ltd. which is responsible for handling of all international trading and trading-related operations of the group. The company is involved into operations with manganese ore, ferroalloys, coke and coal products worldwide.

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