English 
Polski
The Dragon is Sleeping
Katowice, Poland – 03 November 2025
If you were looking for good news in the global steel market this month, you probably had to look very hard. The numbers for October 2025 just came out, and they are, honestly, pretty shocking for anyone in our business. Global crude steel production fell by nearly 6% compared to the same time last year. We are talking about 143 million tons, which sounds like a lot, but it is a big step down from where we should be.
The China Problem. The biggest reason for this “dark cloud” hanging over us is China. We all know China usually carries the whole market on its back, but right now, that back is clearly hurting. Their production crashed by over 12% this month. When the world’s biggest producer cuts output that much, everyone feels the vibration. Their real estate sector is still a total mess, and the “old way” of just building empty cities to use up steel is over. For those of us in the alloy business, this is a giant warning sign. If they aren’t making steel, they aren’t buying manganese or chrome. They are focusing on “high-quality” growth now, but for raw material sellers, it just feels like less business.
Some Good News Elsewhere. It’s not all bad, though. If China is the “sleeping dragon,” India is the “racing tiger.” India’s production grew almost 6% this month. They are building bridges, roads, and factories like crazy. They don’t seem to care about the global slowdown. The USA also had a surprisingly strong month—up over 9%. This is mostly because they are protecting their own market with big tariffs, so their local mills in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania are actually quite busy. It’s a strange “split” world right now.
Manganese and Energy Costs. On the raw materials side, October was a weird month. China actually imported more manganese ore (up about 5.7%) even though they made less steel. Why? Because traders were scared. They saw the “off-season” coming and worried about power cuts in southern China, so they bought everything they could find now to put in the warehouse. It’s a “buy now, worry later” strategy. Also, keep an eye on oil. Brent crude dropped to $66. For a big foundry or a mining operation, this is the only thing keeping the profit margins from turning red. Lower fuel costs mean cheaper shipping, which is the only thing saving us right now.
Europe’s “Resilience”. In Europe, the politicians like to use the word “resilient.” In my experience, that’s just a fancy way of saying “we are not dead yet.” The growth is very slow (about 1.3%), and the manufacturing sentiment is barely staying above the line. Plus, France is having a big political crisis that is making the banks very nervous. For a steel buyer in Europe, the message for October is: stay cautious, don’t buy too much at once, and watch the energy prices. The “perfect storm” that people talked about in September hasn’t gone away; it’s just raining a bit more quietly now.
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Primeore Trading (Polska) Sp. z o.o. is a trading arm of Primeore Ltd. which is responsible for handling of all international trading and trading-related operations of the group. The company is involved into operations with manganese ore, ferroalloys, coke and coal products worldwide.
Media contacts
For further information please contact office.poland@primeore.eu
If you were looking for good news in the global steel market this month, you probably had to look very hard. The numbers for October 2025 just came out, and they are, honestly, pretty shocking for anyone in our business. Global crude steel production fell by nearly 6% compared to the same time last year. We are talking about 143 million tons, which sounds like a lot, but it is a big step down from where we should be.
The China Problem. The biggest reason for this “dark cloud” hanging over us is China. We all know China usually carries the whole market on its back, but right now, that back is clearly hurting. Their production crashed by over 12% this month. When the world’s biggest producer cuts output that much, everyone feels the vibration. Their real estate sector is still a total mess, and the “old way” of just building empty cities to use up steel is over. For those of us in the alloy business, this is a giant warning sign. If they aren’t making steel, they aren’t buying manganese or chrome. They are focusing on “high-quality” growth now, but for raw material sellers, it just feels like less business.
Some Good News Elsewhere. It’s not all bad, though. If China is the “sleeping dragon,” India is the “racing tiger.” India’s production grew almost 6% this month. They are building bridges, roads, and factories like crazy. They don’t seem to care about the global slowdown. The USA also had a surprisingly strong month—up over 9%. This is mostly because they are protecting their own market with big tariffs, so their local mills in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania are actually quite busy. It’s a strange “split” world right now.
Manganese and Energy Costs. On the raw materials side, October was a weird month. China actually imported more manganese ore (up about 5.7%) even though they made less steel. Why? Because traders were scared. They saw the “off-season” coming and worried about power cuts in southern China, so they bought everything they could find now to put in the warehouse. It’s a “buy now, worry later” strategy. Also, keep an eye on oil. Brent crude dropped to $66. For a big foundry or a mining operation, this is the only thing keeping the profit margins from turning red. Lower fuel costs mean cheaper shipping, which is the only thing saving us right now.
Europe’s “Resilience”. In Europe, the politicians like to use the word “resilient.” In my experience, that’s just a fancy way of saying “we are not dead yet.” The growth is very slow (about 1.3%), and the manufacturing sentiment is barely staying above the line. Plus, France is having a big political crisis that is making the banks very nervous. For a steel buyer in Europe, the message for October is: stay cautious, don’t buy too much at once, and watch the energy prices. The “perfect storm” that people talked about in September hasn’t gone away; it’s just raining a bit more quietly now.
***
Primeore Trading (Polska) Sp. z o.o. is a trading arm of Primeore Ltd. which is responsible for handling of all international trading and trading-related operations of the group. The company is involved into operations with manganese ore, ferroalloys, coke and coal products worldwide.
Media contacts
For further information please contact office.poland@primeore.eu
